Monday, October 21, 2013

Business Insight and Optimization

In this post, we will try to understand what business insight means and how we can achieve business optimization. We will take simple examples to get a feel of these concepts.
 
Business Insight Example:
An executive from an on line retail company was concerned about customers abandoning shopping cart. He wanted to quantify the opportunity and understand root cause.  He initiated analysis of logs generated by their shopping cart. They noticed that a good number of their customers leave their cart at some point without closing their purchases. Doing further analysis, they realized that items in those carts sums to approximately 18% of their revenue. Further analysis of what their customers talking about them on social media, an important insight is figured out that customers find it more cheaper to buy those items from their neighboring local market. However online retailers on portal are offering reasonable discounts but delivery charges on such orders make them more expensive compared to local market prices. Most of such orders are smaller than 750 INR.  Portal is offering free delivery for orders more than 750 INR and 12% out of those 18% uncompleted orders are actually more than 650 INR.
As a result of this analysis, portal decided to reduce minimum order value for free delivery charges to 650 INR for a trial period and realized reduction in abandoned shopping cart during that period.
This is a very simple example of discovering business insight by analyzing data from various sources.
 
Business Optimization Example:
This one is most complex to understand and implement as well. Since such models need no or minimal manual intervention, accuracy is a key concern.
One most common and well-known example of such implementation is automatic filtering of spams in Gmail. Gmail has an automated system that helps detect spam by identifying viruses and suspicious messages, finding patterns across messages, and learning from what Gmail users like us commonly mark as spam.
We will consider another example.
For a Retailer, it is extremely important to manage their out of stock rate, which means they ideally never want to be out of stock for any product. But at the same time, they have to manage write-off rate, which means they do not want to throw away or sell at discounted price for expired or spoiled products. Both of these indicators are in conflict, over managing one will distort other.
Existing method at a retail chain with excellent processes might be as described.
At every midnight during a specified window, all sales predictions are made using standard prediction mechanism. Based on those predictions, orders are calculated for each store and sent to store manager. Store manager then looks at the orders and manually adjusts the order by reducing/increasing quantities based on his experience and local knowledge. What’s that local knowledge? It is location, season, whether, price changes, promotions, events etc. These all factors and many more are evaluated on human experience basis to adjust orders.
We are assuming that all these orders are generated automatically and are just manually cross checked and adjusted, assume amount of work it requires if we want to do it seriously. A big retail superstore would easily have 10K+ products. Cross checking them and adjusting them manually every day by humans is not simply possible except relying on standard computer generated orders. These orders have direct relation with out of stock rate directly impacting sales. Other hand they also have direct relation with write-off rate directly impacting profit.
Manual ordering is impossible and if order generating systems has that local knowledge or access to respective data and speed to infer local knowledge. We can automate this decision making process and optimize sales and profit.